Issues: Projectors for All

I first started covering the portable projector industry back in 1991, which seems like a lifetime ago. It was big news when Epson and InFocus announced 640 x 480 front LCD projectors in late 1993 for about ten thousand dollars that weighed less than 25 pounds and cranked out 400 – 500 lumens. Twelve years later, you can get double the number of pixels and four times the light output in a housing that weighs 1/5 as much for 1/7 the price. In other words, you can spend $1,399 for Dell’s 4.7 pound 2300MP DLP projector with 1024 x 768 resolution and 2300 lumens.

With many models priced under $2,000, and more than a few under $1,000, it’s pretty obvious that projectors have evolved from specialty purchases to everyday accessories. (Lamps for some of those early-1990s LCD projectors cost $1,000!)

Our 2005 Projector Buyer’s Guide in this issue lists 51 models alone that weigh less than six pounds, with an additional 81 models occupying the six-to-10 pound range. That’s 132 different models of sub-10 pound projectors with resolutions to 1400 x 1050. (Think these things are mainstream yet?)

And how the brand names have changed since 1993! Sure, InFocus is still around, as is Epson, Sharp and Hitachi. But ASK is gone (it merged with Proxima, which in turn was bought by InFocus). So is nView, who brought the first DLP projector to market ten years ago at InfoComm’95 in Dallas.

Sony and NEC joined the fun a year later, and recent newcomers have included Dell, HP, Casio, Optoma and BenQ. The distribution channels for projectors have changed drastically as well, and you can buy‘em in big box stores like best Buy and Staples, buy direct from the manufacturer ( Dell) or order them from on-line and 1-800 retailers.

As average retail prices have dropped, manufacturers have discontinued their old preferred dealer relationships and controlled distribution in favor of an "anything goes" sales model. That’s good news for price-sensitive markets like education and worship that are embracing projectors with a flourish.

A few years back, I wrote a column titled "Good Enough?" for another publication. I discussed the fact that the majority of desktop and laptop computers seemed to be leveling out at XGA (1024 x 768) resolution and that LCD and DLP projectors were doing the same thing.

That’s because the average user didn’t need any more screen resolution, particularly for making PowerPoint presentations and showing video. This year’s Buyer’s Guide shows that we are still in a "leveled-out" mode in terms of resolution-nearly 130 models listed use native 1024 x 768 LCD panels or digital micromirror devices.

What has changed is brightness, which is now hovering around 2000 lumens in the microportable and ultraportable categories. And prices continue to plummet to the point that you can get almost 1.5 lumens per dollar spent.

Oddly, even though VGA resolution has gone the way of the dodo, there are still plenty of SVGA (800 x 600) projectors being sold, particularly into the education market. That’s partly because the image scaling engines in these inexpensive projectors do a pretty good job with XGA signal sources. But SVGA also does a good job showing standard-definition video. Scaling 480i or 576i to 600p isn’t too demanding a task these days!

Although there is a great deal of emphasis being put on HD in this publication, the market doesn’t have much to choose from in the way of 16:9 high-resolution projectors. I found only 16 to list in the entire Guide, and the question remains whether that’s simply a reflection of market demand, or just reluctance on our part to leave the tried-and-true 4:3 aspect ratio behind.

In the Guide’s "Projector Specs" you’ll see evidence of another trend: The gradual abandonment of SXGA (1280 x 1024) in favor of SXGA+ (1400 x 1050) resolution. Historically it’s notable, as 1280 x 1024 was the standard for powerhouse workstation manufacturers like DEC, IBM and Silicon Graphics for many years.

Now, we’re seeing super-cheap laptop and desktop computers from Dell, HP and others incorporating SXGA+. (One manufacturer, projectiondesign, showed almost nothing but SXGA+ models at InfoComm 2005!) Texas Instruments and Epson have followed suit with SXGA+ DMDs and LCD panels. A changing of the guard, perhaps?

As far as the bells and whistles go, it’s a mixed bag. If you want DVI connectivity, you won’t find it in the majority of SVGA projectors, and many small XGA projectors are lacking this interface. The good news is that power zoom and focus become more affordable every day, and some manufacturers are smart enough to provide mechanical lens shift in low-cost projectors.

And what about alternative technologies, like LCoS? As the Guide shows, it’s still out on the fringe with only two models listed. LCD and DLP still command the market, with the former having about a 54 percent market share. In particular, LCD still has a commanding lead in the 10-to-30 pound space of desktop and installation projectors, thanks to a substantial price advantage over DLP and LCoS.

What’s coming down the pike? Look for more XGA models to slip under $1,500 by the end of this year and eventually replace SVGA by 2007 (unless those projectors drop below $500!) as manufacturers look to slim down their product lines. You’ll also see more 16:9 models come to market in the $1,500 to $2,500 price range as the demand for widescreen and HD imaging picks up. And SXGA+ will continue to grow in popularity, pushing SXGA completely off the stage.

As far as brightness grows, we are approaching the practical limit of horsepower for some of these smaller boxes. They just can’t dissipate the heat fast enough to get to 2500 or 3000 lumens. What you will see instead is continued downward pressure on pricing, which will make the brightness argument moot for most customers.

Now, how about a six pound 1920 x 1080 front projector with 2500 lumens for $2,495? Dream on.

Write Pete at pputman@accessintel.com